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3.9 Are you a critical reader?

Think back to the essay topic in the reading list activity you did previously: future solutions for Auckland’s public transport. Imagine you have done additional research and have come across information on the possible introduction of autonomous cars in cities.

You wonder about the shortcomings and advantages of this technological development and how it could affect public transport in places like Auckland. In the activity below, do a close-reading of the newspaper article "Will driverless cars be heaven or hell?" to see how critical a reader you are.


  • Preparing for arrival
  • The "heaven" version
  • The "hell" version

Preparing for arrival

Read the following text from The New Zealand Herald about driverless cars and highlight anything that strikes you as surprising or significant or that raises questions. Then check the feedback.

Paul Minett: Will driverless cars be heaven or hell?

5:00 AM Tuesday Oct 18, 2016

Retrieved from the NZ Herald
A transport revolution is looming, how can cities prepare for the best possible outcome?

The imminent arrival of the autonomous car creates a huge challenge for cities and regions. Photo / 123RF

• Paul Minett has interests in transportation and business strategy consulting, and is a director of two Auckland based businesses.

Suddenly the autonomous car seems to be waiting just around the corner. With the massive investment going into developing this new technology (or combination of technologies) around the world, it seems we should rather be preparing for its arrival than discussing the timing.

 

The Ford Motor Company has announced a self-driving car in its line-up by 2021. Uber has already begun testing a fleet of autonomous cars to deliver taxi services in Pittsburgh (USA) (with drivers ready to take over, for the time being). A similar trial is under way in Singapore.

 

And recently Christchurch Airport announced the trial of an autonomous shuttle: no driver and no steering wheel on board.

 

There are any number of predictions being made about the likely impact of "driverless cars".

 

There is a whole spectrum, from "heaven" to "hell" (and probably back again).

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Note: Double-click to unhighlight text.

The "heaven" version

Continued... 

In the "heaven" version, the autonomous cars will all be owned by fleet service providers (think Uber without Uber drivers) and over a relatively short period of time most people will stop owning and driving a personal vehicle, opting instead to call the service when they need mobility.

In this version, there will be a huge reduction in the private vehicle fleet as the number of vehicles required to deliver all the mobility needed has been modelled and is predicted to be at least below half of the number of vehicles in use today.

Importantly in the "heaven" version, it is expected people will share these vehicles, both concurrently (like carpooling) and consecutively (like car sharing). As a result, even demand for public transport will be reduced in the cities of the world, and there will be a lot less traffic congestion.

In the "hell" version, there will be far more cars, as each person graduates from owning a private car they drive, to owning driverless cars they direct. In this version, children, elderly, and pizza will all be passengers or cargo at different times, along with many deadhead trips to collect these non-driving passengers and cargoes.

Similarly, rather than park a vehicle at work, it will be sent to run errands during the day.

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Note: Double-click to unhighlight text.

The "hell" version

Continued...

The hell version involves less demand for parking, but big increases in vehicle kilometres travelled and traffic congestion will probably go through the roof.

Of course, the eventual reality will be somewhere in between heaven and hell, probably here on earth. The question is, can civil society influence the extent to which the outcome is more heavenly, rather than more hellish? Would we want to?

This imminent arrival of the autonomous car creates a huge challenge for cities and regions. Most metro areas' transportation plans articulate a set of investments they intend to make in roads and public transport over the coming few years. In Auckland it runs to billions of dollars. The plans do not anticipate the disruption the autonomous car might bring.

On the one hand, these investments might turn out to be completely necessary if the hellish outcome eventuates. On the other hand, there is a risk these investments will become "stranded assets" and future debt obligations related to them will not attract the expected revenue streams.

Even if there is a low assigned probability of a heavenly outcome, the size of the potential losses should give transportation decision-makers reason to pause.

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Note: Double-click to unhighlight text.

Full annotated article


Driverless cars article   [view/annotate inline]

« 3.8 Expectations of you as a reader 3.9 Reading with a critical eye »
 
    
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